Can renewables replace oil and gas in the near future?

Britain needs to grow renewables faster to cut emissions, but it still relies heavily on oil and gas today. The transition requires both: rapid clean-energy build-out and a managed reduction in fossil fuel demand.

Latest DESNZ figures show UK fossil fuel dependency was 76.6% in the first quarter of 2026, while net import dependency was 47.1%.

The progress in electricity is real. In the first quarter of 2026, DESNZ says renewable electricity generation hit a record 43.7TWh and provided 53.1% of UK generation. But gas still provided 32.3% of electricity generation even in a strong quarter for wind.

Importantly, electricity is only part of the picture. Oil and gas are still used in heating, transport, industry, refining and aviation. DESNZ says transport demand increased in the first quarter of 2026, with road and aviation fuel use both rising. The Climate Change Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget says, under a balanced pathway, UK oil and gas demand should fall sharply, but by 65% from 2025 to 2040, not disappear in the near term.

Scotland’s renewables industry is a major opportunity, but it is not yet a like-for-like replacement for oil and gas jobs and supply-chain activity. A 2025 Fraser of Allander Institute report for Scottish Renewables estimated that Scotland’s renewable energy sector had direct employment of 10,900 FTE jobs in 2022. For offshore wind specifically, the estimate was 3,100 direct FTE jobs.

The renewables build-out is also not automatic. A recent report for Scottish Renewables says rising and volatile TNUoS charges have increased lifetime costs for the existing Scottish generation fleet by £2.9 billion compared with expectations at investment, eroding project value and reducing capital available for new projects. Consenting, grid connections and transmission charging all have to work if clean energy is to be built at the pace required.

Renewables can and should replace a growing share of fossil fuel use. But in the near term, Britain still needs oil and gas while demand falls, clean projects are consented and connected, and the workforce and supply chain are built at sufficient scale.